20 F***king 20!

This has been a year to look back on and tremble. Globally, locally and personally it has been a real challenge. I think there have been more difficult years but rarely has a perfect storm eased its way in so unheralded and proceeded to mercilessly devastate all before it. People have faced all kinds of trials, and regrettably some have had to pay the ultimate price. 

This is the year that the rest of the world finally found out how exclusion and isolation feel for Black people. This year the police’s brutal suppression of Black citizens was met with a focused and purposeful wall of Black resistance. This has been the year that Black people finally realised the real strength of street knowledge. Black people came to the realisation that facing up to systemic discrimination cannot be successfully countered just by marches or any means necessary. Black people are now organising to question the workings of the system through political activism and engagement. They are working on changing the narrative on how law enforcement and policing needs to start meeting the demands of future community safety requirements. The year Nigerians decided that being policed by force had to stop. The year we painfully said rest in power to the Black Panther; Chadwick Boseman. My heart is still heavy from the loss of the inimitable Bill Withers, resting comfortably in Grandma's Hands.

This is the year that a global pandemic has sneaked upon us and pretty much brought life as we know it to a standstill. Thanks to a chronic lack of awareness on the part of governments across the world opportunities were missed to contain covid-19 in 2019. The virus marched into 2020 and did what Napoleon and Hitler failed to do; literally conquered the world. This is the year in which the maxim, “better to be lucky than good” was turned on its head. Covid-19 has absolutely no regard for luck and those people who neglected to be good have come a cropper in no uncertain terms. This is the year that the British government went down an extremely wrong headed path of trying to engineer herd immunity in its populace. The UK has subsequently recorded over 80,000 excess deaths. It is the year that the lives of millions of Americans were placed in the hands of Jared Kushner resulting in over 300,000 deaths from covid-19 in America. 

We all would like to believe that we are part of huge human family but this year the pandemic has shown us that when the chips are down people feel very little responsibility for the health and wellbeing of their neighbours or fellow citizens. There have been multiple instances of people profiteering, hoarding essential items and physically fighting to get their hands on what they might have considered to rapidly diminishing desired commodities. When simple safety measures could possibly save lives some people have been protesting against face coverings, lockdowns and social distancing. 

This is the year when the expression “oven ready” had its poorly regarded reputation further sullied by the UK government’s increasingly fraught efforts to get the better of the EU in Brexit trade negotiations. The year when many Brexiteers started to realise that being a union of one can be very paralysing. Achieving Brexit is starting to feel somewhat like climbing to the top of Mount Everest and then having to be stretchered down to the base thanks to summit sickness. So this is the year that the United Kingdom quit the European Union to follow its dream of becoming a 1950s noir lone wolf. 

This is year that democracy was put on red alert. It is no longer the strong rock everyone assumed it to be. Extreme right wing nationalism has stepped onto centre stage and will no longer stay hidden behind conservatism. A case is being made for autocracy and fascism and it is gaining mainstream followers. All of a sudden pushing back against globalism and  multilateralism has become a rallying cry for a virulent wave of populism. Democracy has been shown to be flawed and the democrats are floundering.

With all that has happened this year it is worth pointing out that this year couldn’t stop itself ending. Now whether all the mess ends with this year will be down to everyone all over the world. There is no doubt going to be some tough times ahead but they don’t have to be as fatal as they have been this year. I don't think I have any resolutions for the new year but I do have one resolve; not to worry about the future and just let the future worry about contending with me. 

BREXIT Black & Blue

The current mess that is Brexit has proven clearly that politicians are mostly inclined to pursue their self and partisan interests ahead of the greater good. As a Black citizen of the United Kingdom life after Brexit is threatening to be both frightening and frustrating. The government is full of fools and frauds with very little moral standing. The opposition is full of dogmatic ideologues and short sighted political plodders. Brexit presents a range of social and economic problems for all people on the British isles, however there are likely to be a number of issues specific to Black and Minority Ethnic people. There has been an alarming rise in right wing nationalism and general xenophobia across Europe in recent times. This does not bode well for conditions that await Black people in the new order of things.

Travel around Europe will potentially become increasingly fraught for Black British citizens. Not only will they have to go through tough visa application processes but they are likely to be subjected to further scrutiny at point of entry. It isn’t a certainty that there will be prejudice in the process post Brexit but the current experience of Black non EU migrants and visitors suggests there is scope for discrimination.

Access to support or services while abroad will be variable. Since there won’t be a guarantee of entitlement officials’ prejudices will play a role in how Black people are treated in the event of an emergency or crisis.

An important contribution to quality of life for Black people living abroad is having family, relatives and friends visit them. Similarly being able to travel freely to visit loved ones is important. Maintaining those intimate connections with people living in the EU will become much harder. The likelihood is that

It is traditionally difficult for relatives outside the EU to get visas to visit the UK, and now it is going to be harder for relatives in the UK to get visas too. Ultimately this will affect a range of situations from family interaction to spouses being able to join their partners.

Almost all of Europe is likely to suffer adversely from Brexit but there is the potential that a heightened level of discrimination towards Black people might be one of the unintended consequences. This is something that the EU and UK should put formal processes in place to monitor and tackle as necessary.

Brexit: Theresa May's Bunker Buster

Brexit has proven to be Theresa May’s own personal Waterloo. Not so much because of the epic disaster it has turned into for her but because it has exposed her as the pedestrian politician she really is. Had David Cameron not resigned after the EU Referendum vote she would not have found herself catapulted into the role of prime minister. Had that not happened she would have continued her mediocre error prone stewardship in a ministerial capacity. 

As it is Theresa May assumed the role of prime minister promising; "Brexit means Brexit", "no deal is better than a bad deal" and the UK was about to take world trade agreements to a whole new level. What we are now left with is an ineffectual leader who has both failed to rally her own troops or put up much of a fight against her foreign opposition.

What we have seen is a prime minister who threw away her parliamentary majority, attempted (unsuccessfully) to conceal her true intentions during Brexit negotiations, and really has ended up broken and on her knees at a time the nation needs strong leadership. Theresa May has at every step of the way in the Brexit journey sacrificed sound management for political expediency. She came up with a deal that she didn't canvas support for before presenting it to the EU because she knew it was unlikely to be found acceptable by Westminster factions but she knew she could get agreement with the EU on it. This was despite the fact that she knew she had to come back to Westminster to have it ratified. Her strategy seems to have been to present Parliament with a 'fait accompli' then blame everyone else for not agreeing a deal. This was even though she knew her deal would not be agreeable to anyone.

I don't think Theresa May can be blamed for leaping at the opportunity to be prime minister. However, her almost total lack of a sense of duty that should come with the role has been startling. At every turn she seems to have opted to try and secure her position rather than secure the nation's best interests. Her initial cabinet appointments were designed to curry favour with the Brexiteers in the Conservative Party. At the early stage of negotiations with the EU she opted to go for a transitional post exit arrangement rather than embrace the nettle of actually negotiating new trade tariffs with EU. Even if she had agreed some indicative interim tariffs at that time it might have provided some reassurance to the public and economy about what to expect. Instead, she was swayed by the Business sector to go for a transitional period and remain in the Custom Union. She hadn't factored in the issue of what would happen to border arrangements in Ireland after the end of the transitional period.

Had Mrs May paused to think about the need to make some tough choices it might have occurred to her that the Republic of Ireland needed to maintain the trading status quo even more than the UK did. That is something she could have used as leverage in the negotiations rather than falling to her knees leopard skin pumps in hand begging for a transition period. By restricting her own options May allowed the Republic of Ireland to secure a veto when in fact it should have been pleading for a reasonable compromise.

At this point the British Government has run out of both ideas and time to negotiate an acceptable withdrawal from the EU. Theresa May has to take a huge part of the responsibility for that. Not only did she make a lot of wrong choices but she also appointed a lot of incompetent and uncommitted ministers. For a woman who has been the consummate political operator it appears that Theresa May’s political capital has finally run out. Unfortunately neither the nation nor history will judge her kindly and that is the tragic legacy of her long and dogged political career.

Carry on Corbyn

Jeremy Corbyn appears to be failing both as the leader of the Labour Party and the leader of the opposition. He has alienated most of Labour's parliamentary party and still seems unable, reluctant even, to develop an effective working relationship with them. When he was voted leader of the Labour Party the hope was that he would rescue the party from the centrist reactionary mode it was stuck in. Maybe he would bring a more person friendly and compassionate approach to policy making. Unfortunately it appears he is stuck in a past of grandstanding soap box politics where people make loud speeches and promise to give power back to the people. Unfortunately, in this day and age what people want are wealth and security. Neither of which Corbyn has a plan for.

There are major concerns about how the UK government is handling the process of exiting the European Union. However Corbyn seems determined to do all he can to ensure that Article 50 is triggered as quickly as possible. He hasn't come up with any proposals for dealing with quitting the single market or handling the ending of free movement agreements. Two issues that are fundamental to the future wealth and welfare of Britain. It's almost as if he's expecting Brexit to lead to a revolution which will end in the people rising up and overthrowing the government. Given that Corbyn's ideas have not been revolutionary, or even evolutionary, it is highly unlikely that he will be at the forefront of that revolution should it materialise.

It could be said that inexperience and constant talk of leadership challenges have undermined and impeded Corbyn's tenure. He however has repeatedly gone rogue with statements not in line with Labour Party policy and clearly not discussed with beforehand with his cabinet or MPs. He has failed to adequately engage with influential groups in the Labour Party and put forward an effective front as opposition. This has also meant that the Labour Party has not successfully presented itself to the public as a government in waiting. In fact, it has not come up with any clear positions on the economy, transportation, health, housing or immigration.

It is unlikely that the Labour Party can win a future election under Corbyn. He could however do a better job of holding the government to account. And maybe developing a policy framework that presents a viable and attractive alternative to the current brand of fascistic conservatism being shoved down our throats at the moment.

Exiting is Harder than it Seemed

Source: TechCrunch

Two months after the referendum ended in a vote to leave the European Union the British government still hasn't been able to set out a framework or process for achieving an exit. For a government that seems to be trying not to show its hand before negotiations it seems to be making its confusion and muddled thinking all too clear to all. Theresa May's government has so far offered the nation much needed illumination on the issue by telling us, "BrExit means BrExit" and "BrExit means leaving Europe".

During the referendum campaign a lot was made of the need to reduce migration, reallocate ER financial contributions to public services, and take back control of the legislative process. We were also regularly informed of how irrelevant the single market was in real terms. Now the vote to leave has been taken all the vocal Leave campaigners seemed to have gotten suddenly hazy about exactly what needs to be done. And no one seems in much of a hurry to kick the single market into touch. 

It is true that BrExit will now afford the UK the opportunity to negotiate its own trade deals with other trading blocs. However negotiations won't necessarily be on its own terms as it will lack leverage; and will most likely approach them with more than a faint hint of desperation. This will make any negotiations slow and attritional. Not exactly the earth shattering empowerment independence through BrExit was supposed to bring. 

There will be advantages for domestic manufacturers supplying goods within the UK as the costs of importation are likely to go up making their produce more competitive. It is also possible there might be import restrictions which will benefit them. They will face higher revenue costs for importing capital and materials. But those businesses that export into the EU will very likely see the imposition duties and restrictions which will adversely affect their businesses. 

Farmers are anxiously awaiting news on what will happen to agricultural subsidies. It is clear that there won't be a like for like replacement of lost EU funding. However, decisions on transitional arrangements need to start being made now. Imminent EU funding is likely to be discontinued, or at best suspended while a decision is pending on Article 51. 

However ill prepared the government is for exiting the EU there is enough knowledge about what needs to be done for it to start identifying key requirements for trading negotiations and shaping policy. The sooner the government starts to engage various sectors and identity its priorities and risks the stronger the likelihood of positive, even if meagre outcomes.

Source: www.ledóchowski.eu

How Safe Out?

I am not particularly well traveled across Europe. All my travel in Europe has been down to necessity rather than interest. I therefore cannot claim to be a Europhile. I am also not a big fan of the European Commission's bloated bureaucracy and widespread inefficiencies. However, I do believe that the EU plays an important role in providing a forum for collective action on issues that national governments are too partisan or weak to address. These issues include human rights, environmental protection, quotas, banking regulation, health and safety, and quality standards. 

Successive UK governments have been poor at opting in to dealing with issues of common interest. There is a danger that if given a free hand partisan and monied interests will take priority over the common good. Working together across Europe appears to be the best chance available to protect the interests of the common people, and advance developments working towards fairness and equality.